The upcoming 2022 general elections will be the first time there will not be a serious contender for the top job from the Kikuyu community for the past 20 years. One could ask, how did the most populous community in the country allow this to happen? Well, they have already reigned in quick succession since the end of KANU’s reign in 2002. But if history is to go by, the Kikuyus would like to keep the presidency in Central Province forever. That is why the Mount Kenya politics is currently revolving around the man who should succeed president Uhuru Kenya on the Kikuyu community’s terms.
It is quite clear that the next president of Kenya will not come from the former Central Province. This is despite the fact that the Kikuyu community has a lot of leaders who have expressed interest in running for the presidency in 2022.
But it is worth noting that none of these so called Muthamaki politicians have what it takes to win the 2022 general elections. People like Mwang’i Kiunjuri, Martha Karua, Mwang’i wa Iria and Moses Kuria are best suited as regional leaders. At least for now. They are more about fighting for dominance in the Mount Kenya Politics but not necessarily on a national level.
Whereas some of these politicians are seasoned leaders, such as Martha Karua, nearly three quarters of the current Mount Kenya Politics contestants are rookies. They are very inexperienced in the political sphere as they are mostly first term public officials in their respective seats.
This is more so with leaders like the Murang’a Senator Irungu Kang’ata, Kiharu MP Ndindi Ny’oro and Kikuyu MP Anthony Kimani Ichung’wah. Not to mention people like Nakuru Senator Susan Kihika who always portrays her vulnerabilities for all to see.
It is this inexperience that makes the Mount Kenya Foundation strategize by looking past the 2022 general elections. Most political pundits will posit that the main reason why Uhuru Kenyatta and other leaders from Central are warming up to ODM leader Raila Odinga is to ensure that they regain the presidency five years after the next elections.
Why Raila Odinga Influences The Mount Kenya Politics.
A decade ago, it would have been unheard of thinking that Raila Odinga will be highly sought for the presidency by the Mount Kenya politicians. But hello, we are in 2021 and things change when least expected. Raila Odinga has been flouted as the next president of Kenya and commands some following from the larger Mount Kenya Region.
More importantly, the former prime minister’s arch rival, Mr. Uhuru Kenyatta is the one canvassing his home turf selling his former adversary in his own backyard. But most people will wonder, why? What in it for him to promote someone he spent nearly a decade campaigning against? What changed?
Well, Mr. Kenyatta has other motives. His intentions to have Mr. Odinga succeed him is not all altruistic. Mr. Kenyatta is trying to ensure that whoever takes the helm after him is at least friendly to the Kikuyu community and hence able to protect the kingmakers in the Mount Kenya Politics.
It is a scratch my back I scratch yours type of business. The Kikuyu community have devised a plan to back Mr. Odinga for the 2022 presidency as opposed to backing one of their own or at least the number two in the country, Mr. William Ruto.
The elites in the Mount Kenya Politics have a good reason to back Mr. Odinga than any other candidate at this time. Firstly, Mr. Odinga has the best chance of winning the 2022 general elections. People need to remember that Raila Odinga gave the Mount Kenya Region a run for their money in 2007, 2013 and 2017 even when this region had a top contender from their own community.
In fact, it can be argued that Mr. Odinga actually does not need the Kikuyus to win the 2022 general election. This is because nobody in the political landscape right now will be able to take him on on an equal footing. Mr. Odinga lost by a small margin in 2013 and successfully petitioned the annulment of the 2017 election victory of Mr. Uhuru Kenyatta.
More importantly, the so called Tinga or Baba for that matter, brought the country to a stand still in 2007 after allegedly the Mount Kenya Region stole the vote from right under his nose. To save the country and obviously their businesses, the Mount Kenya political elites decided to compromise hence leading to the formation of the Nusu Mkate Government with-you guessed it- Raila Odinga as the prime minister.
It is this reason why the Mount Kenya Politics for 2022 will be decided on primarily what camp one his. Those opposing the ODM leader versus those who want the Hustler narrative that have not been proven in a meaningful national election.
Even the deputy president William Ruto knows he does not stand a chance going head to head with the former prime minister. But he will feign this in an attempt to albeit secure seats in the National Assembly in order to influence national policy.
Mr. Ruto may also use any seats won in parliament as a bargaining chip to secure political concessions not only for himself, but also that of his loyal allies such as Aden Duale and Mr. Kipchumba Murkomen.
Another reason why Raila Odinga is important for the Mount Kenya politics is that the Kikuyus believe he has what it takes to win the next elections. The saying that if you can’t beat them, join them rings true to the Kikuyu community as they were caught unprepared to ensure that the Kenya presidency stayed in Central for the foreseeable future.
But this may be happening in a blue moon. These inexperienced Mount Kenya leaders will be potent in the come years. This is another reason why Mr. Odinga is attractive to the Mount Kenya community, more so the Kikuyus.
There has been talks that the Kikuyus will support Raila Odinga for the presidency provided that the second in command comes from the Kikuyu “tribe”. Why is that important? Why don’t the Nyuma ya Mumbi support the guy from Sugoi? Don’t WSR guarantee them the deputy presidency? Well, William Ruto can certainly guarantee them a Kikuyu for the running mate, but the Mount Kenya Politics demands the quickest way to regain the presidency.
Because William Ruto, if elected, will be eligible to contest for the second term in office in 2027. But will that be possible for Raila Odinga too? Probably not. Raila Odinga will be 82 years old in 2027. With this advanced age, it is very unlikely that he will contest for a second term. In contrast, Mr. Ruto will only be 60 years old in 2027. He will be relatively a young man as far as Kenyan politics is concerned.
Just like in normal life, the more someone ages, the more likely they are to die of illness or natural causes such as heart attack, etc. I am not saying by being old Mr. Odinga will pass, but it will be stupid not to see why Mr. Odinga’s age looks attractive for anyone who wants to inherit power from him.
The Kikuyu’s unexpected support for Mr. Odinga’s presidency comes with a lot of suspicion. It is a calculated political posture that is trying to position the inexperienced Mount Kenya running mate with state machinery so that they can take over immediately should something happen to Mr. Odinga.
Think of what recently happened to our neighbor to the south. How did Samia Suluhu Hassan come to power?
The Kikuyus want Mr. Odinga to choose a running mate from their community in order to benefit them in the coming future. It is not impractical for Mr. Odinga to actually surrender the presidency back to the Kikuyu community after ascending to power if the running mate is from Central province.
This is more so if Mr. Odinga rules for let us say 6 or 12 months after the election and then decides to retire by quitting.
Mr. Odinga quit the rerun of the 2017 general election hence surrendering the contest to Uhuru Kenyatta.
Did Mr. Uhuru Kenyatta reciprocate by endorsing Mr. Odinga via the “political handshake” of 2018? Well, that is very possible. The handshake calmed down the hostilities the Mount Kenya voters had towards Raila Odinga. This will make all the difference as the former prime minister tries to climb the Mountain. But it is worth noting that he does not need them to win in 2022, but it will be much easier when they are at least receptive of the idea of a Kenyan president emerging from the Lake Region.
