There are plans to oust ODM party leader Raila Odinga after a botched county revenue sharing formula at the senate. This comes as the coast region politicians mull a plan to form a new political party independent of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The politicians are unhappy with Raila Odinga’s betrayal for supporting the revenue allocation formula that was in favour of giving a lion’s share of revenue to populous counties including Kiambu, Muranga and Nyeri while disadvantaging other less developed counties such as Wajir, Garissa, Mandera, Isiolo, and Marsabit. The proposed revenue sharing formula also disadvantaged other historically neglected counties in Rift Valley and the Coast region.
Raila Odinga initially expressed opposition to the idea but after a section of the Mount Kenya politicians threatened to abandon the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) he changed his mind and sheepishly supported the idea.
Even though Raila Odinga threw his political might in supporting the revenue sharing formula, a majority of senators voted against it and hence all legislators had to go back to the drawing board to see whether they can iron out differences before they can converge for another vote regarding the formula in which counties will share revenue from the national government.
But Raila Odinga’s decision to support a legislation that puts most of his supporters at a disadvantage will cost him politically. A majority of politicians from Coast Region (one of the areas that was to be disadvantaged by the defeated proposed revenue sharing formula) are thinking of decamping from the ODM party to form their own political party instead.
The matter being contested at the senate was about the one man, one vote, one shilling formula. Under this criteria, the percentage of money distributed to counties will tied directly to the population of the counties. For example, counties like Nairobi, Kiambu, Bungoma, Kisii and Kakamega that have a high population density will receive more money compared to sparsely populated counties such as Elgeyo Marakwet, Lamu, Garissa and Wajir counties.
The rationale for this is that the more people a county has, the more money is needed to cater for social services such as health care, education and other amenities hence a need for more money to be allocated to counties where most people live.
At face value, this criteria actually makes sense. But on close examination, the less populous counties make an argument that people do not want to live there because these are historically marginalized counties and due to them being neglected in the past, less development took place leading to them being unfavorable for migration or people’s desire to settle down in the said regions. Senators from these regions have indicated that they need to develop their regions in order to attract more people to live in these regions and hence allocating less money to sparsely populated regions was counterproductive.
Coastal region politicians said they need to form a new party that will give them greater bargaining power for national matters that affect their areas such as the proposed revenue allocation formula and formation of the parliamentary leadership.
But the failed county revenue allocation formula is not the only reason why a successor for ODM leadership is being sought. Raila Odinga’s health problems and old age are other pressing issues necessitating his replacement at the helm of the Orange Democratic Movement.
There are also incidences of infighting in the ODM Party particularly among leaders from the Lake Region. This region is Raila Odinga’s breadbasket as far as his career is concerned.
It is worth noting that legislators from the Coastal region have flouted the idea of electing the Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho as an alternative ODM party leader to Raila Odinga before. However, such sentiments were flatly rejected by most ODM leaders from the Nyanza region who are staunch supporters of Raila Odinga and have mistrust of their Coast Region counterparts.
It then follows that the man expected to be the leader of the yet to be launched new political party for Coast region ODM legistlators will be none other than Hassan Joho himself. While Mr. Joho will not attract a national following like Raila Odinga does, he is very popular among most people from the coast, particularly Mombasa.
If their efforts to dislodge Raila Odiginga or defecting from the ODM party materializes, it will improve William Ruto’s chances of ascending to power come 2022. This is because ODM will be weakened significantly by ceding ground at the coast and it is expected that other regions may follow suit in seceding from the ODM party. A thought of splitting ODM into two parties in Nyanza is not unimaginable considering the recent infighting among ODM leaders in the area.
It is not only the Coastal ODM leaders that are dissatisfied with Raila Odinga. The ODM leader has been a punching bag for Jubilee politicians who feel his handshake and BBI factor did not help them win the proposed revenue allocation formula that favored the Jubilee legislators’ Mount Kenya region.
Politicians like Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria and Kiharu MP Ndinyi Nyoro have slammed Raila Odinga for paying lip service in helping them win the recently proposed legislation regarding county revenue sharing formula. Mr. Kuria wondered why the majority of senators who opposed the said legislation were from Raila Odinga’s ODM party. In fact, of the 25 senators who voted no to the legislation, 18 of them were from ODM while 8 were from the ruling Jubilee Party. Mr. Kuria blamed Irungu Kangata for the Jubilee legislators who opposed the motion. Moses Kuria questioned how influential Irungu Kangata was if he could not bring money to the Mount Kenya region.
Here is Ndinyi Nyoro’s video:
