Politicians are well known to be liars, schemers and calculating individuals. This is why I don’t trust an ounce of whatever a politician says as it is more likely an attempt to be “politically correct” (no pun intended) and just telling people what they want to hear. Behind that assuring, charming and charismatic tongue is an attempt to deceive the public into voting for them or to hide an undesirable quality the said politician want people to focus on. But do you expect Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta to fool each other? Oh Yes! Politicians are self-serving ‘creatures’. Whereas a majority of them have inflated egos, their modus operandi is to use anyone they can get to advance their self-interests.
While I am not a politician, it is very fascinating to see a politician deceive another politician. After all, these people know the language of politics and do it all the time. It is even more interesting to watch Kenyan politics at a national level and see deception and underhandedness at the highest level of political spectrum.
Whereas back in 2013, William Ruto was a good guy while Raila Odinga was the boogeyman (as per Uhuru Kenyatta’s narrative). The current president repeated what worked in 2013 again in 2017 election, and it worked. But now that the constitution does not allow Mr. Kenyatta to run for office, he has inverted the narrative and now Raila Odinga is good, and William Ruto is bad. And here comes the Handshake! The “marriage” meant to unite the country. People fail to question the timing of the said ”handshake”. Why didn’t Uhuru Kenyatta extend the handshake propaganda to Raila Odinga in 2013?
Some people will even question why a handshake with Raila Odinga unites the country and not a handshake with any other politician?? Why didn’t Uhuru Kenyatta extend the same handshake to other politicians as well like Musalia Mudavadi in addition to the ODM party leader? Well, it is because Raila Odinga is seen as the most potent person who can stop Uhuru Kenyatta’s attempt to change the constitution in order to extend his reign in power. It all boils down to “if you can’t beat them, join them”. Or should I say, invite them to join you! With Raila Odinga’s ODM tightly tacked into ruling Jubilee Party, they introduced the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) whose intention is to drum up support to hold a referendum in order to change the constitution. Changing the constitution will create a position of prime minister (for Uhuru Kenyatta) while allowing Raila Odinga to be the ceremonial powerless president. Whereas people think this will work, I would like to say that BBI will never survive political posturing and underhanded attempts from both sides to knock each other out. And by the way, anyone who think Raila Odinga will want a powerless position (ceremonial president) is day-dreaming. Raila Odinga is a guy who will stop at nothing to get power. This makes him more likely to go after the top job: the presidency sans changing the constitution. This way, he will get the powerful position that has eluded him for more than 50 years!
It is very likely that some Mount Kenya politicians are aware of this but have been cornered as they don’t currently have any leader (other than Mr. Kenyatta) palatable for the national audience.
The reason for that is that Mount Kenya politicians do not trust Raila Odinga while Lakeside politicians under Raila Odinga’s side do not trust Uhuru Kenyatta. Whereas both sides think they are going to outmaneuver each other, the most likely person to come out victorious is the former prime minister Raila Odinga. It is very likely that the latter is using the handshake and BBI for his own benefit and has no genuine intention to fully support any attempt to change the constitution. Last week, Mount Kenya cartels threatened to abandon BBI if Raila Odinga did not support the one person, one vote, one shilling motion.
Whereas Raila supported this revenue sharing formula, the Mount Kenya still lost the vote! How did that happen? Because Raila Odinga is so good at getting what he wants as far as politics is concerned. Of course the only thing that has been elusive to him is to become the head of state. He publicly supported the motion for everyone to see but political pundits know Raila Odinga and his supporters were not enthusiastic about this revenue sharing formula. This is exactly why Raila is more likely to outmaneuver Uhuru Kenyatta’s henchmen and ultimately become president. Below is the most likely scenerios in which Raila Odinga will use the BBI and the handshake in order to rise to power:
Raila Odinga Using BBI as Bargaining Chips
Raila Odinga will stick with the BBI project but only pay lip service in it, but use it as bargaining chip to get other concessions. Thanks to the novel coronavirus. Covid-19 has been decisive in “stopping the reggae” or rather, the BBI massive campaigns that have been common place during the early months of 2020. But now that Covid-19 is here and has led to schools being closed until 2021, it is safe to assume that BBI campaigns also stay grounded until 2021.
These delays will have consequences in the viability of the BBI project to change the constitution via public consultations. By that I mean, the Mount Kenya politicians who want Uhuru to be head of state past 2022 will run out of time to change the constitution in order to pave way for the re-introduction of the position of a prime minister. It is very likely that Raila’s supporters are aware of this, but have chosen to play along while the clock ticks.
Failure to change the constitution will make it a walk in the park for Raila to win the presidency in 2022 since the only person to beat will be a weakened William Ruto. Meanwhile, Mr. Odinga’s team are likely to bluff about backing out of the BBI project in order to win concessions from the Mount Kenya region who actually depend on the handshake for their political careers. Whereas Mr. Kenyatta’s camp thinks that Raila needs BBI more than them, the reverse is actually true. The reason for this is that If the attempt to change the constitution flops, Uhuru Kenyatta will have no other option but to go into forced retirement. Without Uhuru Kenyatta, the Mount Kenya block have no substitute with a national appeal to match Mr. Odinga’s.
Changing Constitution Via Parliamentary Vote
Should the BBI fail, Uhuru Kenyatta and his supporters are counting on using a parliamentary vote to change the constitution. Whereas that is possible, it is not a given. This is because as per the rules, The Kenyan Constitution 2010 has checks and balances set in place to safeguard the process of changing the constitution.One of these hurdles includes a majority vote in both the Senate and the national assembly. It is worth noting that the constitution stipulates that any significant changes to the constitution via a parliamentary vote still needs public consultation. Section 256 of the current constitution requires at least three months public consultations after a motion is introduced in the National Assembly or the senate and another three months before it can be debated. This implies that Uhuru Kenyatta may not get his wish to rule past 2022 as proponents of attempts to change the constitution will run out of time before they can accomplish their agenda legally in order to have any impact in the 2022 presidential elections. The Tanaga Tanga side also want their leader to be president. They have been likened to hyenas and are sworn enemies of Raila Odinga. They will bicker in both parliament and the senate just to frustrate the process. In politics time is the real estate and as per the look of things, the writings on the wall do not favor the Mount Kenya side this coming election season.
Also, it is worth to note that if the senators have been unable to agree on something as minor as sharing the county revenue, then how about these same senators voting to put Kenya’s future on the hands of two people: Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga? Very unlikely that such a motion will sail through unopposed. Senators like Susan Kihika (Nakuru) and Kipchumba Murkomen (Elgeyo Marakwet) among others will oppose the motion as they are ardent supporters of William Ruto. Don’t forget they have been humiliated by Uhuru Kenyatta by being kicked out of the Majority Whip and Majority Leader positions respectively. They will elect to stick it to Uhuru Kenyatta where it hurts him most: A no vote to the change of constitution in order to bring certain death to Mr. Kenyatta’s political career. Tit for tat.
Raila Odinga Changing His Mind at Last Minute.
Should Raila Odinga change his mind about the BBI project in mid 2021, this will be a brutal blow to Uhuru Kenyatta’s camp who heavily depend on the change of the constitution for their political survival. It is a fact that Uhuru Kenyatta is a lame duck president and actually at the mercy of Raila Odinga to uphold the tenets of the handshake and the BBI propaganda for Mr. Kenyatta’s survival past 2022. I call it propaganda because that is what it is. The aim of BBI has nothing to do with uniting Kenyans. It is a trojan horse meant to extend Uhuru Kenyatta’s reign at the helm.
The Mount Kenya region will be forgiven for being naive about their precarious situation under the BBI project. This is because if the handshake collapses, they are technically done for at least a half a decade. They are unable to field a national leader to take Mr. Kenyatta’s mantle at the moment and all hopes are on one man: Raila Odinga who is being relied upon to help change the constitution. This is why they are covertly trying to groom Peter Kenneth to be the next Mount Kenya kingpin to succeed Mr. Uhuru Kenyatta. It is very likely that the Kikuyu nation have been caught unprepared in a major general election without any credible successor akin to what happened during the Kenyatta era. But do Raila’s camp know this? I bet they do! This is why most people think Raila Odinga will frustrate the handshake and the BBI project in 2021 knowing that Uhuru Kenyatta’s team will be left with insufficient time to reorganize and with no credible plan B, Raila Odinga will run a successful campaign and hence win the presidency.
This type of scenario will leave Raila Odinga and William Ruto to battle each other for the top office in the country. In this battle, it is very likely that Raila Odinga will prevail.
It is even suitalbe for baba as Uhuru Kenyatta has been relentless at alienating his deputy (William Ruto) by the brutal purge of Tanga Tanga’s affiliates in the Jubilee party. It is very likely that Mr. Odinga will capitalize on the unpopularity of William Ruto to knock Mr. Mashamba out of the contest for the presidency. Was the marginalization of Mr. Ruto and his supporters by Uhuru Kenyatta a coincidence? Yes and no!
In one hand, William Ruto and Raila Odinga have always been at loggerheads since the former prime minister kicked Mr. Ruto out of the Ministry of Agriculture due to the maize scandal. While it could have been that Mr. Odinga laid out kicking Mr. Ruto out of Jubilee or at least neutering him by expelling his supporters from powerful positions as conditions necessary for a handshake and BBI, it is more likely that Mr. Kenyatta’s camp does not see any usefulness in the deputy president past 2022. Therefore, Mr. Kenyatta’s camp may be aligning themselves with leaders that can ensure their survival in the future. This is very true of Raila’s capability to enable them change the constitution and hence prolong their reign in power past their current mandate, slated to expire in 2022. It is also possible that Mr. Kenyatta’s supporters saw that if they rally behind William Ruto, Mr. Odinga will effectively sabotage their attempt to hold a referendum. Mr. Kenyatta’s camp probably weighed the pros and cons of using Mr. Ruto and Mr. Odinga in their agenda and went to the side they felt well suited to facilitate their political survival past 2022. Whereas Mr.Kenyatta knows very well that he had indicated that he will rule for 10 years and then downgrade to deputy president and support Ruto’s ambition to be at the helm, person interests won the day and hence enabling Mr. Kenyatta to renege on his promise.
Raila Odinga Getting Mount Kenya’s Endorsement
There is a possibility of a clandestine plan by Mr. Kenyatta and the Mount Kenya leaders actually endorsing Raila Odinga for the presidency in 2022. Whereas deputy president William Ruto has been a constant punching bag for Uhuru Kenyatta’s supporters, a few of the Mount Kenya region politicians have openly heaped praise on the former prime minister, Raila Odinga. Politicians like Kirinyaga governor Anne Waiguru and Wangui Ngirici have praised the spirit of handshake. It is safe to say any supporter of handshake and BBI is inherently a supporter of Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga. In essence, if president Kenyatta endorses Raila Odinga’s decision to run for president, it is very likely that the Mount Kenya cartels will follow suit.
This scenerio is only likely if Uhuru Kenyatta’s desire to build a united Kenya is genuine and he intends to be remembered as his legacy project upon his retirement. By having Kalonzo Musyoka, Gideon Moi, Isaac Ruto, Eugene Wamalwa, Fred Matiangi and James Orengo in government, president Kenyatta can pump his chest for championing Kenya’s unity where others before him have failed to bridge the tribal divide.
